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COVID-19 How's it affecting you and your city?


IamSam

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Here in my city (254,000+ pop), which is currently buried in a ridiculous panic stricken chaotic frenzy and is ghostly abandoned by a self, city, and county imposed isolation. Other than supermarkets/WMarts who are making a killing, everything is shut down. This panic will likely have long term economic repercussions on the population and will probably foster future lawsuits. It should be no surprise that tax breaks and government assistance will not provide adequate relief for lost wages/income. Businesses have already started laying off personnel due to decreased income from the imposed quarantines. Some businesses are even closing/going out of business!

As of last nights local news report, there are only 2 reported local infections and that the projected quarantine time frame should last more than a month! The hospitals with which I work are canceling elective cases. My design jobs are dwindling. I personally will be able to weather the storm as I have enough in savings to manage, but I worry about others. I know couples that spent all their earnings trying to buy supplies enough to last 30 days or more. This is crazy!

What are your feelings about this situation? How will you be affected?
 

Rich54

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I live in New York City and things were relatively normal here until four or five days ago, but then nearly everything has shut down. Definitely a huge financial impact that will be ongoing for quite a while. Personally, I'm retired, so there is no employment impact on me. It's frustrating because nobody is quite sure of the extent of the problem. You say there are only two reported cases in your city, but nobody knows for sure if there might be 1,000 unreported cases. Even if somebody gets the illness and recovers, it's not clear if that means you're immune, or if it's possible to be reinfected a month later. I'm a bit on the fence about whether we are all over-reacting or just being prudent, because not all the facts are in.
 

IamSam

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You say there are only two reported cases in your city, but nobody knows for sure if there might be 1,000 unreported cases.
Now there are 3. And I agree, we have no idea of how many unreported cases are still out there.

I'm a bit on the fence about whether we are all over-reacting or just being prudent
Only time will tell. I'm not being critical of how the outbreak is being handled by officials, but I tend to think that there is a bit of over-reaction by the general public.
 

PRESTON

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I live in Italy and here the virus has already been present for 2 weeks and will last for a long time, we are all locked up in the house, we only go out for strictly necessary things like, pharmacy, shopping and going to the doctor. the Italian state has warned the world of the danger of the virus, the other states have not believed in this and now they are in difficulty especially America and England. in Italy the state has created economic aid to all citizens, businesses and more so as not to bankrupt the country. Guys and friends all, the virus is very aggressive and mainly affects elderly and young people with problems, my advice if you love your loved ones, stay indoors buy masks and cleanser to wash your hands. I am very informed if you want to know more, ask and I will help you.

I forgot the virus and a problem because asymptomatic this means that the person affected does not know he has it and can infect many people. We are forbidden to lay off workers and the state has blocked the payment of mortgages, electricity, gas, and all other services those who have no money are helped by the state to buy basic necessities bread, pasta, water etc. etc.
 
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Paul MR

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It's a simular situation in the UK, I am over seventy had three lots of cancer and have diabetes so one that is at risk. Most shops have bare shelfs.
I do a fair amount with electronics so have a stock of Isopropyl alcohol 99.9 percent (IPA) for cleaning board etc. this is cheap to buy on the internet and can be used as a sanitizer, just mix with twentyfive percent water and put it in an atomizer.
Stay safe!
 

PRESTON

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PaulMR
My advice is to stay indoors
any contact with people, including family members, is dangerous
Always wear gloves and a mask when you are with other people
for the food where I am, there are people who bring it up close to home and then you have to take it alone

and a borderline situation
 

thebestcpu

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Hi IamSam
I suggest following the CDC advice for social distancing.
I have also found that most are woefully unprepared for what is likely to be coming.
Whether it is because you catch the virus or just want to stay away from a large number that are going to get it in your area, best to make sure you have two plus or minus 1 month of supplies.
I know this might sound crazy yet here many thinking the same as you only three weeks ago when we had zero and then 1 case. Today we have 112. I have included a graph below of my projected exponential growth and between early and mid April we will probably be at 10,000 infected.
Note that the vast majority will have mild symptoms yet somewhere between 10% to 20% end up going to the hospital and death rates vary by lots of factors yet it has been anywhere from 0.5% to 5%. Yes the elderly and those with other compromising conditions are most at risk yet 20% of the deaths are between 20 and 65 years of age.
The main issue is that the number of those going to the hospital vs the capacity at the hospitals. They are going to be overwhelmed.
The only known way to slow the rate of increase to help with the hospital capacity issue is the social distancing by all.
Why by all, the best information indicates that there are a large number of people that are actually infected and contagious yet not displaying symptoms. There are is some information that some folks have a mild enough case (yet still infectious) that they are not isolating themselves.
There was a case in Italy where they tested every single person in a village and for those that tested positive for COVID-19, only 25% even knew they were infected.
So, if you have just a handful of confirmed cases, you can bet you might have 5x to 10x folks running around infectious already ---- and in our society people are typically pretty social beings and it is unnatural to do the distancing or high levels of hygiene to help prevent the spread.

I predict you too will be surprised at the rapid increase of COVID-19 in your town.

Here is the graph for Utah with my green extrapolations of where I think it will be in the next few weeks. This is just following the exponential trend (linear line on Y axis log scale) The one blue mark was an update with today's numbers right in the middle of the two curves. Pretty scary how quickly it will likely jump a couple orders of magnitude. China too Draconian measures to isolate and their curve began to bend over. I don't believe even the major steps being taken in the US are as strong as what China took so not clear to me when the curve will bend for us or other countries.
Just my perspective of course
John Wheeler

ADDED EDIT - I would sure like to be wrong about this yet every locality, once they get started seem to follow a very similar exponential curve and are caught off-guard. Some leaders have spotted this a tad early seeing what is coming. You just may have very insightful leaders watching out for the citizens.
A phrase I read a week or so back went something like this - "It will be very hard to determine if the steps we took were an over-reaction, yet it will be very easy to tell if the actions we took were an under reaction."

SECOND ADDED EDIT - The death rates can be higher when the hospitals are overrun and out of capacity or needed equipment/supplies. You just don't get the same standard level or care when they are being overwhelmed. Italy is experiencing this right now. Its not a good time to get sick.

Utah-COVID-cases.jpg
 
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IamSam

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I have also found that most are woefully unprepared for what is likely to be coming.
best to make sure you have two plus or minus 1 month of supplies.
While I would agree with this, I feel it's a stretch for the average household based on their income and the job loss rate. Not to mention that the stores are now depleted of most food items because of panic and those who buy in massive quantities in hopes of potential monetary gain (profiteering) from the anticipated needs when things become worse. I personally witnessed a guy wait for a stockperson to unbox and shelve 30 gallons of Clorox bleach, only to load ALL in 2 shopping carts and whisk off. This is why many will not be able to prepare. No matter his reasoning for his bleach grab, this is intolerable behavior and should not be allowed.

I know this might sound crazy yet here many thinking the same as you only three weeks ago when we had zero and then 1 case. Today we have 112.
I predict you too will be surprised at the rapid increase of COVID-19 in your town.
Yes. I have never doubted that the virus would not overrun our community. We are now at 5 cases and growing daily. I agree with you on the overwhelming of hospitals and social distancing.

Why by all, the best information indicates that there are a large number of people that are actually infected and contagious yet not displaying symptoms. There are is some information that some folks have a mild enough case (yet still infectious) that they are not isolating themselves.
Yes. This has already been the case here. One university woman who tested positive and was asymptomatic, decided she was not sick and went on with her daily routine exposing many.

Coinciding with the rapid growth in the number of cases, job loss, and the unavailability of food supplies, our crime rate is rising exponentially as well. Thus spurring the panic driven ammunition and firearm grab! People who would never own firearms are buying with the intent to defend what they have. That's all we need is a bunch of panic driven morons taking pot shots at any sound they hear at night!

My issue here has been less about the virus and it's spread and more about the ridiculous societal panic and how that's been managed. With our unchecked population growth, COVID-19 is only the first of many more worldwide pandemics to come. I hope everyone is taking note and learning from this example. There certainly needs to be better preparedness and management in the future.

The virus is only the initial part of this problem. I fear that the economic ramifications are going to be far worse.
 

thebestcpu

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There will certainly be economic and social impacts for some time to come. I hope that lessons will be learned from retrospectives on what could be done better.
There has certainly been some panic, hoarding, and gouging yet I have also seen most people being rational and huge tremendous acts of kindness. Many in Salt Lake City use the NextDoor app to stay in touch with neighbors and has proven a good communication device both for some asking for help and many others offering help to others.
So a crisis can bring out the worst yet from my observations can bring out the best.
Hope you stay well and safe Sam
John Wheeler
 

IamSam

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I feel you need to know that the kindness here in my city is overwhelming as well! People here amaze me with their willingness to offer anything to help. All forms of social media are utilized by our community to offer and provide help to those in need, including NextDoor. This help is always available even when we are not under threat of a pandemic. If a house burns down in our community, the displaced family is immediately sheltered and it's only a matter of weeks before a new home is provided/ built and furnished through donations! I could easily go on with the acts of kindness that pour out from the people of our city, but I won't.

This why I don't understand the senseless panic. There has always been enough to go around for everyone if everyone were practicing proper hygiene and social distancing to control vectoring. Or maybe I just have higher expectations from a civilized society. What's done is done and the real question is, will we learn from this experience or are we doomed to repeat it yet again?
 

thebestcpu

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Here in my city (254,000+ pop), which is currently buried in a ridiculous panic stricken chaotic frenzy and is ghostly abandoned by a self, city, and county imposed isolation. Other than
That's great to hear that you have a very supportive community.
I can understand why down the line many states/cities are going to an isolation model. From world experience so far and also modeling that has been done, such extreme measures are actually needed to bend down the growth curve and help with the attempt to reduce stress on medical facility capacity. Apparently just social distancing does not have enough of an impact.

As far as the frenzy, I have seen some of that yet the empty shelves to me was totally expected. A parallel to that would be if it was announced that there was going to be a gasoline shortage. The average person (who on average has 1/2 tank) naturally goes to the gas station to fill up in anticipation. With 263 million cars in the US with average tank size of 15 gallons means about 2 billion gallons of gas will be attempted to be pumped out of all the gas stations in a few days. The pipeline supply is in the 300 to 400 million gallons a day so gas stations run out. If it was stated that you would not be able to fill up for 8 weeks, folks would buy gas cans and try to fill up even more. Not an easy situation to provide transparency and not get that normal type of reaction.

Maybe one of the lessons will be that everyone should follow the Red Cross guidelines and build up a supply of food and supplies for a two to four week timeframe for times of disaster (hurricane, tornado, floods, pandemics, etc etc as part of our culture so when it crisis does come along, there is some spare capacity. May help reduce the panic buying. Maybe also building in a little more surge capacity into the medical system.

For my wife and myself, we have been planning for a long time to get supplies for four weeks mostly because we are in an earthquake zone here in Salt Lake County area. Well before the coronavirus situation took off we did just that. We were not in a panic or frenzy, just doing what the red cross recommended for preparation for any disaster. That took some worry about having to isolate at home as things did ramp up.

Also, unexpectedly, this last Wednesday morning we had a 5.7 earthquake just 12 miles to the west of us at ~7:00am. Our house rocked and rolled and things were shaking /swinging on the walls etc. yet fortunately no loss of utilities in our area. I thought to myself this was a really really bad time to double up on disasters yet was really glad we had done some preparation (we are still getting regular aftershocks through today and hoping the 5.7 was not a pre-quake to somethnig bigger in the area).

Learning lessons and having good leadership to make needed changes is not a given especially when the crises are not frequent and therefore neither are the benefits. So I agree, we shall see.
As for me, I am going to keep a 4 week supply from now on and use it on a first in first out basis so items are not expired.

Just some continuing thoughts
John Wheeler
 

syrupfizzy

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Everything's shut down, and things are getting pretty serious. It's like living in one of the "virus" movies. I hope this pandemic will be over soon.
 

PRESTON

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I don't think it ends soon we'll have to wait a month or two to see what happens for an antivirus we will have to wait a year.
 

pauloalex_98

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I live in Coimbra which is in Portugal. There are about 200 cases here and around 18,000 infected in the whole country. In the initial breaking of the virus in my country people panicked but now everything is more calm and people are starting to be more careful, wearing masks. In my country people are starting to lose their jobs and homes, ending up living in shelters. The quarantine is going to end in May and all people will have to wear masks and maintain social distancing, but I'm pretty sure the number of cases will skyrocket once the quarantine is over. I'm pretty sure this pandemic is going to last up to two years.
 

IamSam

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As of last night, the news reported that we have over 400+ cases in our city with 28 deaths. There's no telling how many others are infected and not showing symptoms. Jobs and entire businesses have collapsed. Food banks are being depleted. We have no shelters. At the moment people are not being evicted or having their utilities cut off. But this will only last until the quarantine is lifted, then all bets are off..............bills will be due. Stimulus checks will offer little to no help.

I will preface the following by saying that our city has done a tremendous job at cooperating, supporting, and donating to all causes associated with this outbreak and quarantine. However, in our region the crime rate has almost tripled. The numbers have been intentionally under reported as to not promote more panic. Mostly breaking and entering (theft) of houses and apartments of individuals who are still working. These homes are being "cased" and then looted when the occupants leave for work. People are now afraid to leave their homes even though they still have jobs! Police have stopped responding to anything (calls) but the most urgent of emergencies. Our city and county jails have been releasing criminals incarcerated for "lesser crimes". Domestic violence is higher than ever. We are seeing more instances of road rage including one women who was shot. To make matters worse, gun and ammunition sales are off the charts. Folks are rightfully preparing to defend themselves and property against the rising threat.

Most of our stores are adequately stocked, but hoarding/panic buying is still going on. There are some items that have never made it back to the shelves.

Models in China are showing that you can be reinfected. I have no idea of how long the pandemic will last, but I can assure you that it's far from over. While I fear that local, state, country, and worldwide economies will suffer for years to come, I do have strong faith that some businesses will recover quickly and those that are defunct will be replaced. There is light at the end of the tunnel.
 

pauloalex_98

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As of last night, the news reported that we have over 400+ cases in out city with 28 deaths. There's no telling how many others are infected and not showing symptoms. Jobs and entire businesses have collapsed. Food banks are being depleted. We have no shelters. At the moment people are not being evicted or having their utilities cut off. But this will only last until the quarantine is lifted, then all bets are off..............bills will be due. Stimulus checks will offer little to no help.

I will preface the following by saying that our city has done a tremendous job at cooperating, supporting, and donating to all causes associated with this outbreak and quarantine. However, in our region the crime rate has almost tripled. The numbers have been intentionally under reported as to not promote more panic. Mostly breaking and entering (theft) of houses and apartments of individuals who are still working. These homes are being "cased" and then looted when the occupants leave for work. People are now afraid to leave their homes even though they still have jobs! Police have stopped responding to anything (calls) but the most urgent of emergencies. Our city and county jails have been releasing criminals incarcerated for "lesser crimes". Domestic violence is higher than ever. We are seeing more instances of road rage including one women who was shot. To make matters worse, gun and ammunition sales are off the charts. Folks are rightfully preparing to defend themselves and property against the rising threat.

Most of our stores are adequately stocked, but hoarding/panic buying is still going on. There are some items that have never made it back to the shelves.

Models in China are showing that you can be reinfected. I have no idea of how long the pandemic will last, but I can assure you that it's far from over. While I fear that local, state, country, and worldwide economies will suffer for years to come, I do have strong faith that some businesses will recover quickly and those that are defunct will be replaced. There is light at the end of the tunnel.
Damn that is horrible. There are no cases of people being shot here in Portugal, because, it's Portugal. Portugal is extremely safe compared to a lot of countries in the world. Politicians, media and known people are also taking measures through television to help avoid domestic violence. They were aware that the quarantine could make the cases skyrocket too.
 

IamSam

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Politicians, media and known people are also taking measures through television to help avoid domestic violence. They were aware that the quarantine could make the cases skyrocket too.
They were aware here as well! We tend to have a lot of young people cohabitating who are not emotionally or intellectually capable of dealing with confinement. On the other end of that stick, we have older couples who have worked their entire lives who now find themselves jobless and confined with someone they don't really like........and they tend to get a little out of hand.
 

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