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More Lockdowns


Scooby Magic

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How things are going in your area? Is your local government planning for another lockdown, again? There is a lot of news recently that there are a number of states that will issue another lockdown closing non-essential facilities/businesses along the way. Washington State banned indoor restaurant dining, as well as gyms, cinemas, theaters, and museums will close. As for the vaccines being readily available, I wonder when will they be distributed to the people so we can flatten the curve the soonest possible.
 

thebestcpu

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Looking forward to the vaccines as well. My understanding is that initial distribution would be later half of December and prioritized first to front line health care workers and then to highest risk populations such as those in nursing homes and then to those that are older or with underlying conditions. Might be a few months into 2021 for the general population depending on manufacturing volumes and efficient distribution of the vaccine. This makes a lot of sense to me and will help bring down the death rate the quickest both by targeting the most vulnerable and getting hospitals back to spare capacity and better care for those that have to be hospitalized.

To get the total infection rate down is a bit tougher and will take a bit longer. Their best estimate is that without any vaccine or other mitigating measures, each person that gets COVID would pass it on to ~ 2 other people. To level out the infection rate you need to get that down to 1 and to reduce the infection rate you need to get that down to less that one. The recommended ways to reduce that transmission are of course the vaccine when available yet physical distancing and masks are more immediate ways to get the number down.

To help put that in perspective, if all you could depend on was a vaccine, to get the transmission rate down to one, half of the population would need to have the vaccine or have the antibodies. In the US, only 3% or 11 million of the population has been confirmed to have had the infection (might be slightly higher for those that were asymptomatic and never tested). To get to 50% immune, lets say you need another 44% with the vaccine to get transmission down to "1", that would be about 144 Million and the present routine is that you will need a second injection a number of weeks apart so 288 million doses to get half the population immune. Thought sounds tough by Spring so maybe summer?

What I expect is that huge improvements in death rate earlier yet the need for other transmission reducing approaches (e.g. masks and distancing) will be with us until we can get a significant portion of the population immune through the vaccine. What will help though is a known timetable and continual improvement of the situation. That is going to feel a whole lot better

That's my take anyways.
 

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